Price of Beef Per Pound in Brazil

Brazil Beef State of affairs Annual

Brazilian beef production is forecast to increment three per centum in 2021, reaching 10.4 1000000 tons Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE). The forecast is based on available slaughter supply and is in line with cattle production, which is forecast to also increase three percent. Notably, Post forecasts the aforementioned slaughter as last year at 13 percent of the total herd in 2021 and with heavier animals every bit Brazil continues to make efficiency gains.

As outlined in the cattle department of this report, problems faced in the second half of 2020 with poor pasture atmospheric condition due to an extended drought in the main producing regions, decreased animal supply for slaughter this year. There is an expectation of lower rainfall in the first quarter of 2021 in iii of the top five producing states, which will exacerbate problems with pastures. Therefore, beefiness product volition remain somewhat constrained from lower slaughter supply.

In 2020, producers received tape prices for cattle and calves, and Post forecast s this tendency will proceed in 2021, boosted by stiff exports, mainly to China and Hong Kong. Improvement in carcass weight is forecast for 2021 which will help partially compensate for the tightened supply of cattle. In regards to slaughter, many slaughterhouses are currently slaughtering fewer animals due to less offer from producers, despite the very high prices. Some farmers are holding the animals in pasture to be able to deliver heavier animals and hence increment profits. Some do non have animals prepare for slaughter because of the drought that affected pastures in 2020. Every bit Brazilian cattle are primarily grassfed, the drought negatively impacted producers. It is expected that by mid-March, 2020, some of the cattle that have been held on farm due to the drought will commencement arriving at slaughterhouses.

Consumption
Post reduced its beef consumption forecast for 2021 to 7.725 1000000 tons (CWE) to reflect only a 1 percent increment, versus the previous forecast of a 3 percent increase. The revision is based on lower domestic demand for beefiness, in favor of other meats. The previous Post forecast showed beef consumption at 40 percent of full meat consumption. Now, even accounting for a ane percent increase in beef consumption in 2021, Post forecasts that beef consumption will represent 37 percent of the total meat consumption in Brazil, as chicken will remain the less expensive meat, making it more than financially attractive to domestic consumers. Overall, Post believes 2021 volition be marked by economical uncertainties, continued loftier external need, high retail prices, and slightly increased domestic consumption of beef.

Some analysts indicate that given high domestic prices, restricted cattle supply, and ample export demand, domestic consumption could fall to levels below the 1990s. According to the latest data from the National Supply Visitor (CONAB), Brazilian consumption of beef decreased 5 percent in 2020. Therefore, considering the current economical scenario, a shift towards purchasing less-expensive meats, primarily chicken, has been evident. The price of chicken in 2020 remained the virtually affordable from the iii main meats and that continues to be the case in 2021.

The Brazilian economy has been greatly affected by the pandemic with official GDP for the tertiary quarter of 2020 (the latest data bachelor) showing a cumulative contraction of 3.iv per centum. The International Budgetary Fund (International monetary fund) projects that 2020 volition end at a iv.5 percent retraction. For 2021, the Brazilian economy is expected to recover, and the IMF forecasts a 3.6 per centum growth. The economic recovery, withal, will depend on how the pandemic evolves in 2021 and at this point it is already known that a new variant of the Coronavirus has originated in the Due north of Brazil, in Manaus, and information technology is believed to exist spreading quickly. The pandemic resurgence, the return to stricter social isolation measures, delays in a nation-wide vaccination programme, and other domestic fiscal challenges are factors that should be kept in heed and tin can impact full Gross domestic product for 2021. This economic scenario significantly impacts domestic consumption of beefiness. In 2020, the government granted a voucher to poor families due to the Covid-19 pandemic. As of February 7, the government had not divers if the "Corona voucher" will be renewed in 2021. Due to the pandemic, many families lost their jobs –ramping the unemployment rate in Brazil in 2020 to fourteen.3 percent.

In 2020, Brazilian consumers saw retail prices of beef increase an average of xviii percentage. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) monitors retail prices for different cuts of beef across country, and the information for 2020 shows that select cuts – mostly consumed by lower income families –were the ones which increased the most when compared to other grades of cuts, equally shown in the following table. Post anticipates that prices are probable to remain elevated until mid-2022.

Trade

Exports
For 2021, Post forecasts a vii pct increment in exports, mainly due to connected strong Chinese demand. In 2021, Mail forecasts exports will represent 26 percent of total product. The impact of Covid-19 pandemic in several of Brazil'south traditional beefiness markets will maintain high consign prices.

Brazil airtight last twelvemonth with a tape U.s.$ 8.05 billion in exports of beef and veal to the world, a xiii percent increment in value from the prior year. In 2020, Brazil exported 25 percent of all its production. The top markets for Brazilian beef were, in order: Prc, Hong Kong, and the The states. When considering the European Union as a block, it surpasses the The states, bold the 3rd position with total imports from Brazil in the amount of US$ 526.7 million, and comprising half-dozen.5 percent of all Brazilian beefiness exports. Chinese demand in 2020 was 50 percent of full exports, followed by Hong Kong with 10 percentage of exports, and the U.s. was the destination of 5.12 percent of all Brazilian beef exports.

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Source: https://beef2live.com/story-brazil-beef-situation-annual-88-141974

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